EVALUATING THE DEGREE OF DEATH RISK AS A RESULT OF FIRE

Abstract

The degree of human risk of death in fires in Ukraine over the past 14 years was studied. Based on the statistical data the technique theory of risk VaR was used. It was estimated that the number of deaths from fires in Ukraine per 100 000 population is normally distributed number. The degree of death risk from fires in Ukraine at the level of acceptable risk – 10–6 was calculated. This value is 2.1301 persons per 100 000 of population. For risk management VaR values can be reduced in two ways: a decrease in the value of the mathematical expectation; increase in the standard deviation.