MODEL OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TRANSPORT LOGISTIC PROJECTS / PROGRAMS / PORTFOLIOS USING FUZZY INFERENCE

Abstract

The problems of automation of risk assessment of projects/programs/portfolios in transport logistic of military units and law enforcement agencies have been analyzed. A non-linear nature of the relationship between the input variables and the final risk assessment parameters has been revealed. A model of risk assessment in transport logistic projects / programs / portfolios using fuzzy inference has been suggested. The model allows to use the quality indicators; to account inaccurate, approximate information, etc. about signs meaning; to use experts knowledge in the field of road transport and road management, project/program/portfolio management; to recieve more qualitative risk assessment, which is studied in the evaluation of projects. The experts can be served in the form of fuzzy inference rules. The model has been implemented on the example of the known software and on the example of software, that was offered by the author in Mamdani system of fuzzy inference. The experimental study has showed increasing of reliability and time reducing in the process of risk assessment transport logistic projects.