MODELING OF OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY OF STABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM IN THE UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS

Abstract

The features of the optimal trajectory modelling for stable tourism development in the Ukrainian Carpathians have been considered. It was found that serious attention has to be paid to temporary parameters (for example, the timing of the beginning stages of the implementation of projects, deadlines for implementation and commissioning), the determining factors of which are the dynamics of the market and the availability of financial resources. A mathematical model of the strategy of development of tourism in the Carpathian region (the sequence of the strategic stages), taking into account the probabilistic nature of the origin of financial indicators in the form of possible deviations with the specified probability was developed, which ensures the adequacy of the results obtained to the real situations. For the final decision in selecting the option of tourism development methodological approach is proposed, which is based on the ability to forecast financial performance "of the lost benefits".