STRUCTURE OF THE FORECAST OF THE TOTAL INNOVATIVE INDICATOR OF INFORMATION SECURITY OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SPHERE

Abstract

Introduction. Modern socio-economic living conditions prompt the need to ensure information security of
innovative indicators of society's development. The socio-economic sphere of the state needs special attention.
Purpose. The purpose of the work is to identify and describe the features of the overall innovative indicator of information security in the socio-economic sphere, as well as to build its forecast using the methods of extrapolation of the time series trend.
Results. The article describes the developed procedure of the main stages of determining the general aggregate innovative indicator of information security of the socio-economic sphere of the state and its constituent parts. It was determined which main components of the overall innovative indicator of information security of the socio-economic sphere of the country are the most influential in the general state of the industry. Based on the data of the cumulative innovative indicator of information security of the socio-economic sphere for the years 2010-2022, its forecast for the next two years was built using trend extrapolation methods, namely extrapolation methods based on analytical indicators of dynamic series, which includes average absolute growth and average growth rate as well as based on the moving average. The procedure for determining the ex-post forecast for 2022 was also carried out to check the adequacy of the selected forecasting methods. This made it possible to compare the obtained values and determine the most optimal of them. Based on the obtained results, a graph of the obtained forecast values was constructed.
Conclusion. Based on the data of the period 2010-2022, the forecast values of the aggregate innovative indicator of information security of the socio-economic sphere for 2023 and 2024 were obtained. The obtained values are compared and a diagram of the future development of events is constructed. It was concluded that the obtained forecast values indicate a tendency to decrease the level of the studied indicator in 2023 and 2024. Which forecast will turn out to be more accurate, it is difficult to state in advance, because now official indicators of this period have not been formed yet.